Software Estimation
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Software Estimation

Estimation that Works

About the Book

Most software estimation is wasteful. After 30 years as an engineering manager, CTO, and CTO coach, I've learned that teams spend countless hours estimating work that never informs actual decisions. This book challenges conventional wisdom and provides a framework for when estimation matters—and when it doesn't.

Written for CTOs, VPs of Engineering, and engineering managers, this guide tackles the real problems you face: CEOs demanding impossible timelines, marketing getting unlimited budget while engineering fights for resources, and teams losing credibility when "estimates" become unmovable commitments.

 You'll learn:

 - The five valid reasons to estimate (and why everything else is waste)

 - Why software estimation is fractal, and what that means for your planning

 - How to stand your ground when executives pressure you for unrealistic dates

 - The "Four Goal Model" that replaces single-number targets with actionable ranges

 - How to reframe engineering from a cost center to a profit center

 - Practical techniques: effort vs. duration, maintaining error margins, and sprint planning that actually works

Drawing from decades of hands-on experience and coaching dozens of CTOs, this book delivers immediately actionable frameworks without academic theory or estimation theater. If you're tired of estimation exercises that waste time and destroy trust, this guide shows you a better way.

About the Author

Stephan Schmidt
Stephan Schmidt

Stephan Schmidt launched his tech career as a self-taught coder, mastering the art of programming as a kid in a department store back in 1981 with ambitions of creating video games. His passion for technology led him to university, where he delved into computer science, specializing in distributed systems and artificial intelligence, while also exploring the realms of philosophy. With the dawn of the internet era in Germany during the 1990s, Stephan became a pioneering coder and engineering manager for several startups.His journey in the tech world expanded as he founded a venture capital-funded startup and tackled architecture, processes, and growth challenges in various fast-growing VC-backed companies.

His roles have included engineering manager at ImmoScout24 and CTO of an eBay Inc. subsidiary. Following the successful sale of his wife’s startup, the couple relocated to the seaside, where Stephan embraced his role as a CTO coach, guiding technology leaders through the intricacies of their evolving roles.

Table of Contents

    • Introduction
    • Why estimate?
      • Priorization
      • Investment (ROI)
      • Coordination
      • Capacity Planning
    • Psychology of Estimation
    • How not to estimate?
      • Shoot your estimation from the hip
      • Pressure
      • Managing engineering like Captain Kirk
      • Estimations are not measurements
      • Why Estimation Fail
      • Effects of bad estimations
    • How to estimate
      • Clean Bill
      • Predictions
      • Commitments
      • Basics
      • The more time you invest into estimation, the smaller the error
      • Estimates are not timelines
      • Estimations are not measurements
      • The market doesn’t stop
      • The method for proper estimations
      • Estimation Process
      • Costs
      • AI and estimations
      • Estimating Different Types of Work
      • Tips
    • Example Customer Feedback Form
      • In sprints
      • Costs Example
      • Models over Numbers
    • Make it work for you
      • Communication
      • Standing Ground
      • Four Goal Model
      • Cost and Profit Center
      • Revenue Attribution
      • Model
      • By customer
      • ROI
    • Speeding up
    • #NoEstimation
    • Time to market
    • 10 Step Plan
    • CTO Coaching
    • About the author
    • Appendix
      • Tips

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