The Profit Warning Survival Guide
The Profit Warning Survival Guide
Lessons learned from 245 small cap disasters
About the Book
When a stock warns on profits and crashes by 20% what do you do? Hold for recovery? Average down? Bargain Hunt? Sell? Sell Short? There's so much chaos generated from the emotional fallout during these periods that most don't know what to do. We set out to create the definitive study by accumulating the data from 245 small cap profit warnings. Understand the anatomy of a profit warning, the traits of profit warning stocks and what types of behaviour can save you on the downside.
The Research Project
- Building a database
How to spot a profit warning
- Profit warning bingo
The Anatomy of a Profit Warning
The Complete Journey
- Six months before - the Accelerating Decline
- Announcement day - the Crash!
- 18 months later - the Disappointments of Hope
What are the odds of recovery after a profit warning?
- Case Study: MySale plc
- Do profit warnings bounce ?
Do Profit Warnings Come in Threes?
- Drivers of multiple profit warnings
- Case Study: Dialight - Multiple Warnings
- The Complete Journey
The Traits of Profit Warning Stocks
Which Stocks are Most Prone to Profit Warnings?
- 1. Quality
- 2. Value
- 3. Momentum
- Profit warnings and investment styles
- Case Study: French Connection - Value Trap
Which Styles are Most Likely to Recover ?
- How profit warnings damage share prices
- Only Quality shares are worth holding for recovery
- Case Study: Boohoo.com - quality recovers
- Which Sectors are Least Prone to Profit Warnings?
- Which Stocks are Most Prone to Profit Warnings?
- The Psychological Reaction to Profit Warnings
Key Insights from Academic Research
- The immediate impact on prices
- Price impact surrounding a profit warning
- Longer term price impact of profit warnings
- The role of analysts in profit warnings
- Different reasons for profit warnings
The List of Profit Warnings
- How you can help
- On Profit Warnings
- On Sentiment
- The List of Profit Warnings
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