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Prediction Market Trading: Quantitative Strategies & AI-Powered Bot for Polymarket
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About
About the Book
Most people lose money on prediction markets.
Not because the markets are efficient — they aren't.
But because they don't know where the edge is.
This book shows you exactly where it is.
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Built from a real project — not theory.
I spent weeks researching academic papers, studying
Polymarket's API, and building a working Python bot
that detects mispriced markets automatically.
Everything I learned is in this book.
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What you'll get:
✅ 6 battle-tested strategies with academic backing
(longshot bias, bond value, spread capture, AI analysis + more)
✅ The correct Kelly Criterion formula for prediction markets
(99% of guides get this wrong — we show you the fix)
✅ Complete Python code — copy, run, profit
✅ How to use free AI models (Llama, Gemini) as a
superforecaster to find mispriced markets
✅ Real risk management: position sizing, drawdown
rules, when NOT to trade
✅ Full Polymarket API integration — no paid data needed
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Who this is for:
→ Developers who want to build algo trading systems
→ Traders curious about prediction markets
→ Anyone who wants a data-driven edge over emotional bettors
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Author
About the Author
Lucas Aguirre
Telecommunications Engineer from Argentina with international
experience in technology and business. I studied part of my
engineering degree at INSA Lyon, France — one of Europe's most
prestigious grandes écoles.
Currently pursuing a Master's degree in Cybersecurity, focused
on distributed systems, applied cryptography, and decentralized
financial infrastructure.
I'm a builder at heart — I turn ideas into working systems.
This book came from a real project: building an automated
trading bot for Polymarket from scratch, with minimal resources
and first-principles thinking.
I write about the intersection of technology, quantitative
finance, and real-world value creation.
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