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判断力：AI时代最值钱的能力
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About
About the Book
大多数人把"做错选择"归因为"信息不够"或"不够聪明"。但真相是——在信息不全、因果模糊、后果未知的环境里，再聪明的人也会系统性地错。
判断力是一套对抗"不确定"的底层方法，可以像肌肉一样练出来。
2025年，执行的成本趋近于零，判断的成本没有变。AI 让你跑得更快，但跑错方向时，更快意味着更远地偏离。AI 越强，判断力越值钱。
这本书给你什么- 三道迷雾——不确定性的三个来源：信息迷雾、因果迷雾、自我迷雾
- 七种判断力——从三迷雾推导出的七种可修炼能力：证据力、抽样力、因果力、系统力、自省力、定力、取舍力
- 七条口诀——今天就能用的决策抓手
- 七套工具——评分卡、速查表、自检清单
- 一份路线图——从今天开始的一年修炼计划
3-10年经验的技术人员、产品经理、技术管理者、独立开发者——任何在"没有标准答案"的环境里做选择的人。
不需要技术背景虽然案例多来自技术行业，但判断力的方法是通用的。无论你做什么职业，只要面临"信息不全、因果模糊、后果未知"的决策，都能直接用。
与其他决策书的不同- 可推导：七种判断力不是经验归纳，是从三道迷雾的逻辑结构推导出来的
- 有AI视角：每种能力标注"AI能补/补不了"的边界
- 可练习：每章有经验阶梯（照着做→改着做→想着做→飞轮）
- 有公式：贝叶斯更新、锚定系数、Brier分数等可量化工具
边界就是方向，判断就是你的肌肉。
Author
About the Author
kejia shao
雨根科技软件大数据部主管，美国北亚利桑那州大学数据分析硕士，工作二十年来，先后在马上金融、河狸家、墨迹天气从事算法工作，在机器人具身智能、智能家居、金融风控、电商推荐、O2O派单等领域具有算法实际落地经验。在墨迹工作期间不断突破与创新，申请多项发明专利，使得墨迹在国际公认的Forecastwatch天气预报评测中取得全球第一的成绩。现主导雨根科技碳寻时空大模型研发工作。
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