The Flow Forecasting Pocket Guide

Daniel Vacanti and

Colleen Johnson

Daniel Vacanti and

Colleen Johnson

The Flow Forecasting Pocket Guide is your essential introduction to risk-aware delivery forecasting. Written by Daniel Vacanti and Colleen Johnson, this guide challenges the myth of perfect prediction and shows you how to make smarter decisions in the face of uncertainty. You’ll learn why averages fail us, how to interpret variability in your system, and how to apply Monte Carlo Simulation using just a spreadsheet and your team’s past throughput. With practical examples, blunt honesty, and a clear disdain for overcomplication, this book gives you the tools to see delivery risk earlier and respond with confidence—without estimates, story points, or time-consuming planning sessions. If you’ve ever been burned by a date that felt solid until it wasn’t, this is the forecasting guide you’ve been waiting for.

Daniel Vacanti and

Colleen Johnson

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About the Book

Forecasting isn’t about getting the date right—it’s about seeing the risk early enough to do something about it.

The Flow Forecasting Pocket Guide offers a no-nonsense, practical introduction to probabilistic forecasting for anyone who needs to deliver work predictably. Whether you're an Agile practitioner, team lead, or executive tired of missed dates and fuzzy estimates, this guide cuts through the noise and gives you the tools to understand and act on delivery risk.

Authors Daniel Vacanti and Colleen Johnson walk you through the limitations of averages and deterministic planning, and instead offer a clear, step-by-step approach to applying Monte Carlo Simulation using your actual throughput data. With plain language, relatable examples, and a focus on actionable insights over academic theory, this book equips you to confidently answer the most important delivery questions—“When will it be done?” and “Will we make the date?”

You don’t need perfect data. You don’t need fancy tooling. You just need this book, your team’s past performance, and a willingness to let go of the illusion of certainty.

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Daniel Vacanti

Daniel Vacanti has spent most of the last 20 years focusing on Lean and Agile practices. In 2007, he helped to develop the Kanban Method for knowledge work. He managed the world’s first project implementation of Kanban that year, and has been conducting Kanban training, coaching, and consulting ever since. In 2011 he founded Corporate Kanban, Inc., which provides world-class Lean training and consulting to clients all over the globe—including several Fortune 100 companies. In 2013 he founded ActionableAgileTM which provides industry leading predictive analytics tools and services to any flow-based process. Daniel holds a Masters in Business Administration and regularly teaches a class on lean principles for software management at the University of California Berkeley.

Episode 278

An Interview with Daniel Vacanti

Colleen Johnson

Colleen is the CEO of ProKanban.org, an inclusive Kanban learning community. She is also co-founder of ScatterSpoke, an Atlassian Ventures Portfolio company driving actionable improvements through retrospective data. For over 25 years, she has presented, coached and taught agile to audiences around the world. She has worked across a range of industries with clients like Wells Fargo, eTrade, Home Depot, Southwest Airlines and more. Colleen helps organizations apply a systems thinking approach to aligning flow practices end-to-end. She has served as a board member for Agile Denver, the Agile Uprising, and chair of the Mile High Agile Conference. She is happiest in the woods, camping with her three kids and very patient husband.

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