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Well Calibrated, Unevenly Priced
Market calibration and the favourite-longshot bias in online sports betting
Are betting odds honest? A free study of 18,238 settled markets shows they are well calibrated, with a small, predictable tilt toward longshots. Open data included.
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A free working paper on how well online fixed-odds betting markets are priced. Using both sides of 18,238 settled two-outcome markets across five sports from November 2024 to July 2026, with the bookmaker margin removed, it finds that market probabilities are well calibrated in every decile, with a small systematic tilt: outcomes priced below 50% slightly overperform and favourites slightly underperform, and the tilt roughly doubles in player-proposition markets, the same markets that carry the highest margins. Companion study and open data: https://betbetter.world/studies/market-calibration - Daily bookmaker margin index: https://betbetter.world/studies/margin-index - Free API: https://betbetter.world/api/ - Data CC BY 4.0. Model estimates, not betting advice. 18+.
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