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The Paradox of Progress

AI, Automation, and the New Stability Risk

In The Paradox of Progress, Amir Bagherpour shows that success depends on how societies and organizations navigate rapid technological change, including large-scale economic displacement and a fundamental shift in the nature of work. While history offers parallels in past industrial transformations, today’s transition is unfolding on a dramatically compressed timeline—advancing at many times the velocity of the Industrial Revolution.

By blending economic history with data-driven analysis, Bagherpour explains how the rate of adaptation determines whether progress strengthens or destabilizes the status quo. Drawing on advanced forecasting and simulation results, the book offers practical insights for leaders seeking to harness rapid technological change to build durable economic and institutional strength.

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About the Book

The Paradox of Progress examines how rapid advances in artificial intelligence and automation are reshaping productivity, labor markets, and societal stability—and why institutional adaptation has become the binding constraint of the AI era. Grounded in quantitative models, empirical data, and historical economic research, the book shows that productivity growth and broad-based economic participation are no longer naturally coupled when automation scales faster than institutions can adapt. Drawing parallels to prior technological transitions while highlighting the unprecedented compression of time today, it explains how misalignment between exponential technological change and linear institutional evolution creates systemic risks even in high-growth environments. The central argument is structural rather than ideological: AI is delivering real and durable productivity gains, but long-term resilience now depends on how organizations, economies, and institutions are redesigned to operate at the speed of progress.

Author

About the Author

Amir Bagherpour

Amir Bagherpour is a global leader and architect of agentic decision intelligence systems for public - and private-sector institutions. He is a computational social scientist with a proven track record combining statistical forecasting, game theory, and simulation with advanced AI capabilities to create geopolitical, commercial, and economic foresight into practical solutions for businesses and institutions. He advises and has built decision intelligence systems for Fortune 500 companies and public institutions. He has built decision intelligence technologies throughout his career for DARPA, National Science Foundation (NSF), Department of State, Department of War, and various other organizations.

 

He co-founded a predictive decision intelligence firm supporting public and private sector clients and previously served as Director of Advanced Analytics in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of State, where he built the Department’s first enterprise analytics capability and led more than 100 data-driven conflict and crisis assessments informing policymakers, diplomats, and military officers.

 

A former U.S. Army Armor Officer, Amir holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Claremont Graduate University, where his dissertation accurately anticipated outcomes of the Arab Spring. He also earned an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and a B.S. in Systems Engineering from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, where he was a Division I NCAA tennis player and boxing champion.

 

The Paradox of Progress synthesizes his empirical research and model findings on automation, productivity, and institutional resilience in the age of AI.

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