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Evolutionary Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases

Pathogens evolve. Their evolution shapes how diseases spread, how deadly they become, and how our attempts to control them succeed or fail.

This book explores infectious disease through the lens of evolution.

Jacob Koella

Pathogens evolve. Their evolution shapes how diseases spread, how deadly they become, and how our attempts to control them succeed or fail.

This book explores infectious disease through the lens of evolution.

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About the Book

Why do pathogens evolve to become more or less deadly? Why does drug resistance evolve so quickly? And how do new diseases such as SARS or Ebola emerge?

Evolution is one of the central forces shaping the dynamics of infectious diseases. It explains the rise of antibiotic resistance, the emergence of new pathogens from animal reservoirs, and even the subtle ways parasites may influence host behaviour.

Evolutionary Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases introduces the evolutionary perspective on infectious disease biology. Written as a textbook for a one-semester course, it combines evolutionary theory, empirical examples, and the fundamentals of mathematical epidemiology to explain how pathogens evolve and how this evolution affects disease dynamics and control.

Topics include parasite manipulation of host behaviour, the evolution of virulence, host adaptation to infection, epidemiological modelling, evolutionary approaches to disease control, and the emergence of infectious diseases.

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About the Author

Jacob Koella

Jacob Koella writes about population biology for conservation, the evolutionary ecology of infectious diseases, and theoretical population genetics. His books combine biological insight with mathematical clarity, with a particular emphasis on parameter estimation—helping readers connect theory to real data and real inference.

He is a professor of evolutionary biology and parasitology at the University of Neuchâtel (Switzerland). With training equivalent to a Master’s degree in mechanical engineering (systems dynamics), a PhD in evolutionary ecology, and several years of experience working on the epidemiology of malaria in Tanzania, his research develops mathematical theory at the interface of epidemiology and evolutionary ecology.

He teaches courses in mathematical modelling, parasitology, and evolutionary ecology at the University of Neuchâtel and ETH Zurich.

Table of Contents

Overview

Introduction

Take-home points

Manipulation

Is manipulation good for the parasite?
Manipulation by malaria parasites
Take-home points

Evolution of virulence

Evidence that virulence can evolve
Basic theory
Alternative ideas
Vaccine-driven evolution of virulence
Take-home points

Defence by host

Pre-infection defence
Post-infection defence
Why isn’t there more resistance?
Take-home points

Mathematical epidemiology

Basic reproductive number
Mathematical formulation
Basic reproductive number of a vector-borne disease
An epidemiological model of co-evolution
Take-home points

Evolutionary aspects of the control of infectious diseases

Drug treatment
Insecticides
Genetic engineering of vectors
Take-home points

Emerging infectious diseases

Genetics of emergence
Ecology of emergence
Take-home points
Appendix

Epilogue

Solutions to problems

Introduction
Manipulation
Evolution of virulence
Evolution of the host
Epidemiology
Control
Emerging diseases

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