A case against estimates
A case against estimates
The rewards are theirs, the risks are yours.
About the Book
This book explores cognitive bias and the human condition of estimation. It unpacks the fallacies and illusions we have created around the estimate. It looks at Why we estimate, Why estimates are correct and why they are wrong. But importantly it presents an alternative.
The world is changing faster than ever, and here we are still doing ritualistic, ceremonial things not because they are good or valuable, but because that’s just the way its always been done.
Estimations is one of these embedded ideas, ubiquitous in the human operating system, in business, in management. It is taught in every discipline from business to garbage collection. Our children cry, “When will be there?”. We ask, “How long will it take?” and we can imagine no other way of doing things.
What if I showed you, the illusions, like when your eyes deceive you? What if, just as your vision can so easily be tricked, your mind has been tricked into believing falsehoods and fallacies.
What if estimations are not decreasing risk, but instead they are increasing them?
What if estimations were anti-collaboration? What if estimations were subjectively viewed as just what we do, but objectively was an illusion of control and certainty. The illusion is so powerful, you confabulate and justify it, even when estimations have proved to be wrong.
Table of Contents
Preface
Why do we estimate?
Top Down
Professional
Accountability
Planning
But we have a deadline
But we need to manage expectations
Risk management
Organised
No details
Why are estimates correct?
Falsehoods
False Memories
Luck
Enough Padding
Predictable
Making it fit
Why are estimates wrong?
Change
Expectations
Predictions
Cognitive Load
Unknowns
Inexperience
Biases
Topics not directly covered.
Shared effort
Omittance
Quality Discovery
Fixation
Sunk cost
Availability
Anything else?
Unpacking alternatives
Shift from Estimation to Discussion
Constraint-Based Planning
Adaptive Delivery
Shared Risk and Accountability
Rejecting illusions
Rethink Success
How AMMERSE can play a role
Risk
Being late
Conclusion
Estimations are not collaborative
Stochastic vs Determinism
What do we lose?
Will things change?
A. Do projects fail?
B. AMMERSE Summary
About the Author
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