Information Espresso


This book is no longer available for sale.

Information Espresso

Using Value of Information for Making Clear Decisions (with support from the R programming language)

About the Book

Please Note: This title is no longer available here. It is now republished by Springer/Nature/Apress.

This book arrives as another one in our series of short tutorials intended to be read in 1-3 hours, spanning no more than 100 pages so that you can understand big ideas quickly on a first pass. Then, when you want to go back and explore details in a deeper fashion, important concepts will be easy to find.

This tutorial teaches decision makers how to tame decision ambiguity by establishing an efficient research budget (the value of information) used to clarify complex decisions under uncertainty. It is an extension and companion piece to Business Case Analysis with R: A Simulation Tutorial to Support Complex Business Decisions and It's Your Move: Creating Valuable Decision Options When You Don’t Know What to Do.

The first book set up a framework in the R programming language by which decision makers can analyze the uncertainty and risk associated with complex business opportunities. The second book set up a framework with three planning tools to create different strategic alternatives to capture the value of the complex business opportunity. This book will teach you how, again with support of the R language, to compare the effects of uncertainty across those strategic alternatives in a time and resource efficient manner.

With this book you will learn

  • The meaning of Value of Information
  • How to conduct tornado analysis in R
  • How to identify critical uncertainties using tornado charts
  • How to calculate the value of information using R

About the Author

Robert D. Brown III
Robert D. Brown III

Robert D. Brown III is the President of Incite! Decision Technologies LLC, a consultancy supporting senior decision-makers facing complex, high-risk opportunities. These opportunities usually include strategic planning, project selection, planning & risk management, and project portfolio analysis & management.

Mr. Brown has devoted his twenty-plus-year career to providing solutions to his clients’ complex problems by employing creative thinking and advanced quantitative business, engineering, and systems analysis. His client experience spans diverse industrial and commercial fields including petroleum & chemicals, energy, utilities, logistics & transportation, pharmaceuticals, electronics manufacturing, telecommunications, IT, commercial real estate, federal agencies, and education.

Through Incite, Mr. Brown delivers analysis, decision support tools and systems, and training in decision-making and risk management. His goal is to help clients measure the value and the risk associated with the important decisions they face in order to make informed trade-offs and choices.

Mr. Brown graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 1992 with a Bachelors of Mechanical Engineering (Co-op program).

Table of Contents

    • 1.1 Acknowledgments
    • 1.2 Setting a Budget for Making Decisions Clearly
    • 1.3 What You Will Learn
    • 1.4 What You Will Need
    • 2.1 The Decision Tree
    • 2.2 Some Preliminary R Code
    • 2.3 The Influence Diagram
    • 3.1 The Solution Approach
    • 3.2 Style Guide
    • 3.3 The Model Algorithms
    • 3.4 The Sensitivity Analysis
    • 3.5 VOI Algorithms
      • 3.5.1 Coarse Focus First
      • 3.5.2 A Finer Focus
    • 3.6 Concluding Comments
      • 3.6.1 Espresso Shot #1
      • 3.6.2 Espresso Shot #2
      • 3.6.3 Espresso Shot #3
  • 4. Appendix: Code Samples
    • 4.1 Preliminary VOI Example
    • 4.2 VOI R Scripts
      • 4.2.1 Functions
      • 4.2.2 Assumptions
      • 4.2.3 Business Decision Model
      • 4.2.4 Sensitivity Analysis
      • 4.2.5 Value of Information
      • 4.2.6 Critical Uncertainty Sensitivity Analysis and Refined VOI
    • 5.1 How to be a Business Analytics Jedi
      • 5.1.1 Initial Discussion
      • 5.1.2 Decision Simulation - Let’s Make A Deal
      • 5.1.3 Clarifying Objectives
      • 5.1.4 Generating Creative Alternatives
      • 5.1.5 Clarifying the Sources and Effects of Uncertainty
      • 5.1.6 Understanding Risk & Uncertainty
      • 5.1.7 Taking Uncertainty into Account
      • 5.1.8 Rolling It All Up
    • 5.2 To Framing…And Beyond!
      • 5.2.1 Immediate Application of Concepts
      • 5.2.2 Beyond Framing
  • Notes

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