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Completed on 2017-11-26
About the Book
Please Note: This title is no longer available here. It is now republished by Springer/Nature/Apress.
This book arrives as another one in our series of short tutorials intended to be read in 1-3 hours, spanning no more than 100 pages so that you can understand big ideas quickly on a first pass. Then, when you want to go back and explore details in a deeper fashion, important concepts will be easy to find.
This tutorial teaches decision makers how to tame decision ambiguity by establishing an efficient research budget (the value of information) used to clarify complex decisions under uncertainty. It is an extension and companion piece to Business Case Analysis with R: A Simulation Tutorial to Support Complex Business Decisions and It's Your Move: Creating Valuable Decision Options When You Don’t Know What to Do.
The first book set up a framework in the R programming language by which decision makers can analyze the uncertainty and risk associated with complex business opportunities. The second book set up a framework with three planning tools to create different strategic alternatives to capture the value of the complex business opportunity. This book will teach you how, again with support of the R language, to compare the effects of uncertainty across those strategic alternatives in a time and resource efficient manner.
With this book you will learn
- The meaning of Value of Information
- How to conduct tornado analysis in R
- How to identify critical uncertainties using tornado charts
- How to calculate the value of information using R
- 1.1 Acknowledgments
- 1.2 Setting a Budget for Making Decisions Clearly
- 1.3 What You Will Learn
- 1.4 What You Will Need
2. A MORE REFINED EXPLANATION
- 2.1 The Decision Tree
- 2.2 Some Preliminary R Code
- 2.3 The Influence Diagram
3. BUILDING THE SIMULATION IN R
- 3.1 The Solution Approach
- 3.2 Style Guide
- 3.3 The Model Algorithms
- 3.4 The Sensitivity Analysis
3.5 VOI Algorithms
- 3.5.1 Coarse Focus First
- 3.5.2 A Finer Focus
3.6 Concluding Comments
- 3.6.1 Espresso Shot #1
- 3.6.2 Espresso Shot #2
- 3.6.3 Espresso Shot #3
4. Appendix: Code Samples
- 4.1 Preliminary VOI Example
4.2 VOI R Scripts
- 4.2.1 Functions
- 4.2.2 Assumptions
- 4.2.3 Business Decision Model
- 4.2.4 Sensitivity Analysis
- 4.2.5 Value of Information
- 4.2.6 Critical Uncertainty Sensitivity Analysis and Refined VOI
5. A SPECIAL OFFER
5.1 How to be a Business Analytics Jedi
- 5.1.1 Initial Discussion
- 5.1.2 Decision Simulation - Let’s Make A Deal
- 5.1.3 Clarifying Objectives
- 5.1.4 Generating Creative Alternatives
- 5.1.5 Clarifying the Sources and Effects of Uncertainty
- 5.1.6 Understanding Risk & Uncertainty
- 5.1.7 Taking Uncertainty into Account
- 5.1.8 Rolling It All Up
5.2 To Framing…And Beyond!
- 5.2.1 Immediate Application of Concepts
- 5.2.2 Beyond Framing
- 5.1 How to be a Business Analytics Jedi
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