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Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Guide
Assessing Uncertainties When You Don't Have Data or a Clairvoyant
This book is 100% completeLast updated on 2017-07-30
What is the usual response when asked for the value of an assumption in an important business case analysis? Usually we get "most likely" cases that are driven by bias, then padded by arbitrary factors. The SMEE Guide provides a facilitation framework to overcome those limitations and reduce the anxiety of being asked for "the number."
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About
About the Book
Please Note: This title is no longer available here. It is now republished by Springer/Nature/Apress.
This book arrives as another one in our series of short tutorials intended to be read in 1-3 hours, spanning no more than 100 pages so that you can understand big ideas quickly on a first pass. Then, when you want to go back and explore details in a deeper fashion, important concepts will be easy to find.
This tutorial teaches decision makers how to create reasonable assessments of uncertain variables in business case analysis. It is an extension and companion piece to Business Case Analysis with R: A Simulation Tutorial to Support Complex Business Decisions, It's Your Move: Creating Valuable Decision Options When You Don’t Know What to Do, and Information Espresso: Using Value of Information for Making Clear Decisions.
The purpose of this tutorial is to...
- help you recognize appropriate subject matter experts (SMEs) to use in assessing information about uncertain events;
- provide you with a kind of script for helping SMEs acknowledge and assess their own bias;
- provide you with a routine to elicit the appropriate information from SMEs required to support high quality business case analysis.
The Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Guide provides a facilitation framework for overcoming many of the spoilers to clear thinking while providing a means to account rationally for uncertainty in business case analysis.
Author
About the Author
Robert D. Brown III
Robert D. Brown III is the President of Incite! Decision Technologies LLC, a consultancy supporting senior decision-makers facing complex, high-risk opportunities. These opportunities usually include strategic planning, project selection, planning & risk management, and project portfolio analysis & management.
Mr. Brown has devoted his twenty-plus-year career to providing solutions to his clients’ complex problems by employing creative thinking and advanced quantitative business, engineering, and systems analysis. His client experience spans diverse industrial and commercial fields including petroleum & chemicals, energy, utilities, logistics & transportation, pharmaceuticals, electronics manufacturing, telecommunications, IT, commercial real estate, federal agencies, and education.
Through Incite, Mr. Brown delivers analysis, decision support tools and systems, and training in decision-making and risk management. His goal is to help clients measure the value and the risk associated with the important decisions they face in order to make informed trade-offs and choices.
Mr. Brown graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 1992 with a Bachelors of Mechanical Engineering (Co-op program).
Also by the Author
Also by the Author
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