Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Guide
Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Guide
Assessing Uncertainties When You Don't Have Data or a Clairvoyant
About the Book
Please Note: This title is no longer available here. It is now republished by Springer/Nature/Apress.
This book arrives as another one in our series of short tutorials intended to be read in 1-3 hours, spanning no more than 100 pages so that you can understand big ideas quickly on a first pass. Then, when you want to go back and explore details in a deeper fashion, important concepts will be easy to find.
This tutorial teaches decision makers how to create reasonable assessments of uncertain variables in business case analysis. It is an extension and companion piece to Business Case Analysis with R: A Simulation Tutorial to Support Complex Business Decisions, It's Your Move: Creating Valuable Decision Options When You Don’t Know What to Do, and Information Espresso: Using Value of Information for Making Clear Decisions.
The purpose of this tutorial is to...
- help you recognize appropriate subject matter experts (SMEs) to use in assessing information about uncertain events;
- provide you with a kind of script for helping SMEs acknowledge and assess their own bias;
- provide you with a routine to elicit the appropriate information from SMEs required to support high quality business case analysis.
The Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Guide provides a facilitation framework for overcoming many of the spoilers to clear thinking while providing a means to account rationally for uncertainty in business case analysis.
About the Author
Table of Contents
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1. INTRODUCTION
- 1.1 “What’s Your Number, Pardner?”
- 1.2 What You Will Learn
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2. CONDUCTING SME ELICITATIONS
- 2.1 The Good SME
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2.2 Conduct the Assessment
- 2.2.1 Define the Uncertain Event
- 2.2.2 Identify the Sources of Bias
- 2.2.3 Postulate and Document Causes of Extrema
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2.2.4 Calibrate The Range of Uncertain Events with Probabilities
- 2.2.4.1 Discrete Binary Uncertainties
- 2.2.4.2 Continuous Uncertainties
- 2.2.5 Document the SME Interview
- 2.3 Closing Comments
- 3. KINDS OF BIASES
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4. A SPECIAL OFFER
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4.1 How to be a Business Analytics Jedi
- 4.1.1 Initial Discussion
- 4.1.2 Decision Simulation - Let’s Make A Deal
- 4.1.3 Clarifying Objectives
- 4.1.4 Generating Creative Alternatives
- 4.1.5 Clarifying the Sources and Effects of Uncertainty
- 4.1.6 Understanding Risk & Uncertainty
- 4.1.7 Taking Uncertainty into Account
- 4.1.8 Rolling It All Up
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4.2 To Framing…And Beyond!
- 4.2.1 Immediate Application of Concepts
- 4.2.2 Beyond Framing
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4.1 How to be a Business Analytics Jedi
- Notes
Other books by this author
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