Applied Data Science for Credit Risk
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Applied Data Science for Credit Risk

A Practical Guide in R and Python

About the Book

Over the past five decades, technological advancements have driven significant transformations in data science. While the rise of high-speed computing has played a key role, the development of specialized data science tools and packages has been even more crucial in shaping the field. Today, data practitioners increasingly rely on these tools to streamline analysis and automate processes. However, the widespread use of such tools can sometimes lead to over-automation, where important foundational principles and assumptions are overlooked. This can result in the application of incorrect statistical methods, potentially compromising the validity of the analysis.

This book addresses these challenges by showcasing the most widely used data science methods through practical examples, specifically within the domain of credit risk management. Using both R and Python, it walks readers through real-world scenarios, offering a practical guide to applying these methods and a thorough understanding of the theoretical underpinnings. The goal is to provide readers with a clear, step-by-step approach to analyzing data, understanding the outcomes generated by pre-existing software, and making informed decisions based on those results.

The book is designed primarily for practitioners in credit risk management, though it is equally relevant to anyone interested in applied data science. It assumes that readers have a foundational knowledge of data science, particularly statistics, econometrics, finance, and banking. Familiarity with Internal Rating Based (IRB) models and International Financial Reporting Standards 9 (IFRS9) is also recommended to understand better the concepts discussed.

A supporting GitHub repository, accessible here, complements the book by expanding its scope. The repository will be regularly updated with documents covering various modeling topics.

About the Author

Andrija Djurovic
Andrija Djurovic

Andrija Djurovic is a credit risk professional with over ten years of experience in credit risk modeling. His expertise encompasses modeling Probability of Default, Loss Given Default, Exposure At Default, the development of scoring models, macroeconomic modeling, and portfolio analysis. With comprehensive statistical knowledge spanning academia to industry, his proficiency extends to crafting tailored analytics applications. Notably, Andrija is the author and developer of essential R (monobin, monobinShiny, PDtoolkit, LGDtoolkit) and Python (monobinpy) packages tailored for credit risk modeling. Andrija is also the author of the book Probability of Default Rating Modeling with R.

To learn more, visit his LinkedIn profile at www.linkedin.com/in/andrija-djurovic, github page at https://github.com/andrija-djurovic, or connect directly through email at djandrija@gmail.com.

Table of Contents

  • Preface

  • 1 Financial mathematics of loans
  • 1.1 Net present value
  • 1.2 Loan repayment plan
  • 1.3 Loan repayment moratorium
  • 1.4 Loan restructuring

  • 2 Credit risk modeling
  • 2.1 Descriptive statistics
  • 2.1.1 Measures of central tendency
  • 2.1.2 Measures of variability
  • 2.1.3 Measures of distribution shape
  • 2.2 Variable engineering
  • 2.2.1 Numeric variable transformations
  • 2.2.2 Categorical variable encodings
  • 2.3 Ordinary least squares regression
  • 2.3.1 Model estimation
  • 2.3.2 Model assumptions and diagnostics
  • 2.3.2.1 Testing for normality
  • 2.3.2.2 Testing for heteroscedasticity
  • 2.3.2.3 Testing for multicollinearity
  • 2.3.2.4 Testing for autocorrelation
  • 2.3.3 Violation of the fundamental OLS regression assumptions
  • 2.3.3.1 Normality of residuals
  • 2.3.3.2 Heteroscedasticity of residuals
  • 2.3.3.3 Multicollinearity
  • 2.3.3.4 Autocorrelation in residuals
  • 2.4 Logistic regression
  • 2.5 Principal component analysis
  • 2.6 Hypothesis testing
  • 2.6.1 Test of proportions
  • 2.6.2 Exact binomial test
  • 2.6.3 Jeffreys’ test
  • 2.6.4 T-tests
  • 2.6.5 Welch’s ANOVA and Games-Howell test
  • 2.6.6 Hosmer-Lemeshow test
  • 2.6.7 Population stability index
  • 2.6.8 Herfindahl-Hirschman index and concentration testing
  • 2.7 Bootstrapping

  • 3 Custom optimization techniques
  • 3.1 Effective interest rate
  • 3.2 Constrained linear regression
  • 3.3 Constrained logistic regression
  • 3.4 Calibration of the PD ranking model
  • 3.5 Transition rates matrix rescaling

  • Bibliography

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