Actionable Agile Metrics Volume II
Actionable Agile Metrics Volume II
Advanced Topics in Predictability
About the Book
The only reason to collect data is to take action. We take action because of our relentless pursuit of improvement. That is what professionalism is all about. Taking action, however, requires a considered and deliberate analysis of the data at hand. We don't take action for action's sake but rather we take action based on how our data speaks to us. Unfortunately, our data speaks to us through the garbled language of variation. Few even recognize the language of variation. Far fewer even understand it. This book will act as a translator.
Once variation is controlled, the next step is turn our process data into meaningful forecasts about what can or cannot be done. But how do we forecast when we have complicated work-breakdown hierarchies, spiraling WIP, and excessive dependencies? This book will help with that too.
(You can always find out more at https://www.actionableagile.com)
- Why Write This Book
- Who Should Read This Book
- Conventions Used
- How to Read
- Section I: Variation and Predictability
- Chapter 1 – Wilt the Stilt
Chapter 2 – Variation Defined
- The Second Principle for Understanding Data
- Two Types of Variation
- Exceptional Variation
- The Two Mistakes of Data Analysis
- Flow Metrics and Variation
Chapter 3 – Variation and Predictability
- A Definition of Predictable Process
- Sequential Analysis for Predictability
- What About Little’s Law?
Chapter 4 – Process Behaviour Charts
- Table Data vs. Visualized Data
- The Running Record
- Rules for Presenting Data
- The First Principle of Understanding Data
- The X Chart
- The Moving Range Chart
- The XmR Chart
Chapter 5 - How Much Data?
- How Much Data?
- PBCs with less than 20 data points
- When to Update Limits
Chapter 6 – Detecting Signals on PBCs
- The Trend is Not Your Friend
- Detection Rules for XmR Charts
- Zero Bounded Data
- Sign, Sign, Everywhere a Sign
- Did Wilt Improve?
- An Additional Rule?
- An Example Using Cycle Time
Chapter 7 – XmR Charts and the Four Basic Metrics of Flow
- XmR Charts and Cycle Time
- XmR Charts and Throughput
- XmR Charts and WIP
- XmR Charts and WIP Age
Chapter 8 – Myths and Other Considerations
- What If I Know I Have Bad Data?
- PBCs Using Medians
- The Wrong Ways to Use PBCs
- The Only Data Considerations You Need
Chapter 9 - VoP, VoC, and Predictability
- Predicable Process vs. Arbitrary Targets
- VoC, VoP, and Scrum
- Three Types of Action
- Section II: Advanced Monte Carlo Simulation and Predictability
Chapter 10 - Monte Carlo Simulation Revisited
- A Quick Thought Experiment
- Probabilistic Thinking
- Forecasts for Multiple Items
- Key Learnings and Takeaways
Chapter 11 - Different Sampling Methods
- Is Our Default Sampling Algorithm Incorrect?
- All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Random
- What Happened To Our Team?
Chapter 12 - What Percentile Do I Choose?
- Here Comes The Rain Again
- Continuous Forecasting
Chapter 13 - Scaling Monte Carlo
- Single Team With Work Item Hierarchy
- Single Team Working On Multiple Items
- Multiple Teams With Dependencies
- Just When You Thought It Was Safe…
- Chapter 14 - A Parting Thought
Appendix A - The Basic Metrics of Flow
- Work In Progress
- Cycle Time
- Work Item Age
Appendix B - How To Construct an XmR Chart
- The XmR Chart for Cycle Time
- About The Author
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