Leanpub book LAUNCH 🚀 A case against estimates by Jonathan Crossland

Welcome to the Leanpub Launch video for A case against estimates: The rewards are theirs, the risks are yours by Jonathan Crossland!

About the Book

This book explores cognitive bias and the human condition of estimation. It unpacks the fallacies and illusions we have created around the estimate. It looks at Why we estimate, Why estimates are correct and why they are wrong. But importantly it presents an alternative.

The world is changing faster than ever, and here we are still doing ritualistic, ceremonial things not because they are good or valuable, but because that’s just the way its always been done.

Estimations is one of these embedded ideas, ubiquitous in the human operating system, in business, in management. It is taught in every discipline from business to garbage collection. Our children cry, “When will be there?”. We ask, “How long will it take?” and we can imagine no other way of doing things.

What if I showed you, the illusions, like when your eyes deceive you? What if, just as your vision can so easily be tricked, your mind has been tricked into believing falsehoods and fallacies.

What if estimations are not decreasing risk, but instead they are increasing them?

What if estimations were anti-collaboration? What if estimations were subjectively viewed as just what we do, but objectively was an illusion of control and certainty. The illusion is so powerful, you confabulate and justify it, even when estimations have proved to be wrong.

About the Author

Hi, I am Jonathan, an author, software developer and creator of the AMMERSE Value System.

I am on a mission to identify and call to witness, strange, misleading or delusions embedded within our systems. Whether it's the nonsense with virtue signalling organisational values, to estimations, there will always be a lot to unpack and point out.

Ultimately I am working on the value system model, a model which attempts to bring cognition, human psychology, behaviour and culture into a value system so that we can broaden our understanding of what it means to be human.

I am also working on my first novel.

Follow the author here!

Watch These Short Excerpts from the Full Video