Business Case Analysis with R + Information Espresso + It's Your Move + SMEE Guide
Business Case Analysis with R + Information Espresso + It's Your Move + SMEE Guide
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Business Case Analysis with R + Information Espresso + It's Your Move + SMEE Guide

Business Case Analysis with R
Information Espresso
It's Your Move
Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Guide

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About the Books

Business Case Analysis with R

Business Case Analysis with R

A Simulation Tutorial to Support Complex Business Decisions
  • 158

    Readers

  • 100

    Pages

  • 25,716

    Words

  • 100%

    Complete

  • PDF

  • EPUB

  • MOBI

  • APP

This is a tutorial for learning how to use the statistical programming language R to develop a business case simulation and analysis.

The tutorial follows the case in which a chemical manufacturing company considers constructing a chemical reactor and production facility to bring a new compound to market. There are numerous uncertainties and risks involved, including the possibility that a competitor brings a similar product online. The company must determine the value of making the decision to move forward and where they might prioritize their attention to make a more informed and robust decision. While the example used is a chemical company, the analysis structure it presents can be applied to just about any business decision, from IT projects to new product development to commercial real estate.

The purpose of the book is not to teach you R in a broad manner. Rather, it shows you how to

  • Set up a business case abstraction
  • Model the inherent uncertainties in the problem with Monte Carlo simulation
  • Communicate the results graphically
  • Draw appropriate insights from the results

[If you are a true bibliophile, prefering the smell and feel of a hardcopy book, you can purchase a print version at Lulu.]

John A Dutton
Salil Athalye
Matt Marzillo
Carlos Ortega

4 reader testimonials

Information Espresso

Information Espresso

Using Value of Information for Making Clear Decisions (with support from the R programming language)
  • 63

    Pages

  • 16,326

    Words

  • 100%

    Complete

  • PDF

  • EPUB

  • MOBI

  • APP

This book arrives as another one in our series of short tutorials intended to be read in 1-3 hours, spanning no more than 100 pages so that you can understand big ideas quickly on a first pass. Then, when you want to go back and explore details in a deeper fashion, important concepts will be easy to find.

This tutorial teaches decision makers how to tame decision ambiguity by establishing an efficient research budget (the value of information) used to clarify complex decisions under uncertainty. It is an extension and companion piece to Business Case Analysis with R: A Simulation Tutorial to Support Complex Business Decisions and It's Your Move: Creating Valuable Decision Options When You Don’t Know What to Do.

The first book set up a framework in the R programming language by which decision makers can analyze the uncertainty and risk associated with complex business opportunities. The second book set up a framework with three planning tools to create different strategic alternatives to capture the value of the complex business opportunity. This book will teach you how, again with support of the R language, to compare the effects of uncertainty across those strategic alternatives in a time and resource efficient manner.

With this book you will learn

  • The meaning of Value of Information
  • How to conduct tornado analysis in R
  • How to identify critical uncertainties using tornado charts
  • How to calculate the value of information using R
It's Your Move

It's Your Move

Creating Valuable Decision Options When You Don’t Know What to Do
  • 78

    Readers

  • 33

    Pages

  • 8,569

    Words

  • 100%

    Complete

  • PDF

  • EPUB

  • MOBI

  • APP

The simple, routine decisions we often face usually present us with a few mutually exclusive options. Do we get the vanilla ice cream or the chocolate? Do we travel to Disney World for vacation or the dude ranch in Alberta? Do we take the scenic route to work today or the timeliest route? We usually address these decisions by weighing in our mind the net effect of the relative pros and cons of each choice without generally worrying that the consequences will be beyond our ability to handle them should they turn out contrary to our preferences, even significantly so.

Business decisions often present us with a more complex situation, however. In these cases, we frequently face multiple coordinated decision options in which the possible combinations of options approach hundreds if not thousands. How do we possibly consider the pros and cons of all those options without getting mired in analysis paralysis or, throwing our hands up in frustration, shooting from the hip to deal with the consequences reactively as they arise? The answer is: we don't have to resort to either extreme.

The purpose of this short tutorial is to show you how to use three thinking devices called the Decision Hierarchy, the Strategy Table, and a Qualitative Description table to frame creative decision strategies that effectively reduce the decision complexity of business case analysis. It gives you the ability to create the right combinations of decision options for analysis without testing all of them or simplistically guessing at the best pathway to take at too high of a level of consideration.

The tutorial addresses the following issues:

  • Why do you need this tool?
  • Use a Decision Hierarchy to partition decision categories and identify decision options
  • Use the Strategy Table to create spanning sets (or thematic threads) of global value
  • Develop qualitative descriptions (rationales) of decision strategies for effective interdepartment communication
  • What you should and should not do next

The tutorial also includes a downloadable template for creating your own creative decision strategies.

Bob de Wolff
Anya Faingersh
Reader "Archimedes"

3 reader testimonials

Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Guide

Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Guide

Assessing Uncertainties When You Don't Have Data or a Clairvoyant
  • 21

    Readers

  • 30

    Pages

  • 7,316

    Words

  • 100%

    Complete

  • PDF

  • EPUB

  • MOBI

  • APP

This book arrives as another one in our series of short tutorials intended to be read in 1-3 hours, spanning no more than 100 pages so that you can understand big ideas quickly on a first pass. Then, when you want to go back and explore details in a deeper fashion, important concepts will be easy to find.

This tutorial teaches decision makers how to create reasonable assessments of uncertain variables in business case analysis. It is an extension and companion piece to Business Case Analysis with R: A Simulation Tutorial to Support Complex Business Decisions, It's Your Move: Creating Valuable Decision Options When You Don’t Know What to Do, and Information Espresso: Using Value of Information for Making Clear Decisions.

The purpose of this tutorial is to...

  1. help you recognize appropriate subject matter experts (SMEs) to use in assessing information about uncertain events;
  2. provide you with a kind of script for helping SMEs acknowledge and assess their own bias;
  3. provide you with a routine to elicit the appropriate information from SMEs required to support high quality business case analysis.

The Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Guide provides a facilitation framework for overcoming many of the spoilers to clear thinking while providing a means to account rationally for uncertainty in business case analysis.

About the Author

Robert D. Brown III
Robert D. Brown III

Robert D. Brown III is the President of Incite! Decision Technologies LLC, a consultancy supporting senior decision-makers facing complex, high-risk opportunities. These opportunities usually include strategic planning, project selection, planning & risk management, and project portfolio analysis & management.

Mr. Brown has devoted his twenty-plus-year career to providing solutions to his clients’ complex problems by employing creative thinking and advanced quantitative business, engineering, and systems analysis. His client experience spans diverse industrial and commercial fields including petroleum & chemicals, energy, utilities, logistics & transportation, pharmaceuticals, electronics manufacturing, telecommunications, IT, commercial real estate, federal agencies, and education.

Through Incite, Mr. Brown delivers analysis, decision support tools and systems, and training in decision-making and risk management. His goal is to help clients measure the value and the risk associated with the important decisions they face in order to make informed trade-offs and choices.

Mr. Brown graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 1992 with a Bachelors of Mechanical Engineering (Co-op program).

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